Case Study: Novel Technology

Project Background

Client

• The client is a specialty drug delivery firm based in the US. It has several upcoming innovative devices which allow the delivery of a variety of drugs / therapeutic molecules in various doses across different patient segments.
• It has already successfully completed pilot stage testing of its technology. The firm had recently undergone a corporate strategy overhauling and, under its global expansion plans, planned to introduce its devices in new markets.
• As a part of its revised strategy, the client wanted to identify, screen, evaluate and engage with prospective licensing and development partners.

Objective

• To define 5-6 important parameters for shortlisting molecules. Among others, these parameters were based on the current route of administration, patent expiry, API availability, dosage amount and dosage frequency.
• To assess leading pharmaceutical drugs / vaccines across the defined parameters and prioritize the reviewed candidates across different tiers as per the relative ranking set against the above parameters.
• Estimate the likely sales potential driven by target customer base, uptake rate and expected pricing.
• Build a predictive model to determine potential deal structures with suitable partners taking into consideration the R&D / other cost, payback time, upfront / milestone and royalty payments.

Project Approach

Project Outcome

Deliverable

• A comprehensive excel database of data captured / assessed for over 200 drug / vaccine candidates covering substantial information such as patent expiry, API availability, route of administration etc.
• A recommended list of 25 shortlisted candidates which were more suited to the client’s delivery system.
• ADetailed business plans for each of the shortlisted candidates, highlighting the competitive landscape (both marketed / pipeline), existing challenges, benefits of a novel delivery system and an overall opportunity analysis highlighting likely deal structures / value.

Outcome

• Greater understanding within the client’s leadership team on the commercial potential of its novel delivery systems, with specific targets, to drive focused sales / business development efforts.
• The deal structure model emerged as a credible third party opinion to internal deal valuation models. The ability to flex certain parameters to do a multi-variate sensitivity analysis offered greater control to the management during negotiations, enabling them to get a fair deal value
• The findings and suggestions were used ‘as-is’ by the CEO in his recommendations to the Corporate Advisory Board. Roots Analysis was retained to further develop specific opportunities and assist in the execution of the Board’s plans.